Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.020929 0.023714 0.026735 0.030258 0.034253 0.038645 0.043841
2025-08-03 0.016241 0.019999 0.024429 0.030040 0.036966 0.045244 0.055908
2025-08-10 0.013698 0.017859 0.023051 0.030014 0.039124 0.050663 0.066429
2025-08-17 0.011719 0.016006 0.021609 0.029481 0.040286 0.054635 0.075211
2025-08-24 0.010519 0.014957 0.020997 0.029836 0.042480 0.059981 0.086158
2025-08-31 0.009384 0.013832 0.020106 0.029625 0.043758 0.064054 0.095583
2025-09-07 0.008703 0.013257 0.019895 0.030308 0.046304 0.070071 0.108300
2025-09-14 0.007702 0.012090 0.018681 0.029339 0.046232 0.072125 0.115127
2025-09-21 0.006990 0.011285 0.017922 0.028964 0.046985 0.075427 0.124106
2025-09-28 0.006262 0.010380 0.016913 0.028075 0.046801 0.077178 0.130659
2025-10-05 0.006031 0.010256 0.017130 0.029185 0.049954 0.084556 0.147171
2025-10-12 0.005760 0.010034 0.017159 0.029966 0.052597 0.091271 0.163111
2025-10-19 0.005519 0.009851 0.017251 0.030884 0.055600 0.098928 0.181567
2025-10-26 0.005112 0.009339 0.016731 0.030677 0.056588 0.103144 0.194224
2025-11-02 0.004775 0.008921 0.016335 0.030650 0.057881 0.107982 0.208432
2025-11-09 0.004398 0.008395 0.015696 0.030106 0.058146 0.110918 0.219244
2025-11-16 0.004179 0.008146 0.015546 0.030468 0.060157 0.117291 0.237312
2025-11-23 0.003906 0.007768 0.015120 0.030253 0.061008 0.121477 0.251354
2025-11-30 0.003765 0.007637 0.015156 0.030951 0.063733 0.129563 0.274097
2025-12-07 0.003446 0.007121 0.014393 0.029961 0.062921 0.130436 0.281769
2025-12-14 0.003220 0.006776 0.013943 0.029577 0.063326 0.133824 0.295093
2025-12-21 0.002960 0.006340 0.013272 0.028669 0.062536 0.134623 0.302797
2025-12-28 0.002915 0.006357 0.013543 0.029803 0.066259 0.145370 0.333682